It amazes me that I still receive emails that say, "I'm going to wait until the Premier League season starts again before I get trading".
Yes, Premier League markets on Betfair have plenty of liquidity. But there are many other leagues that have more goals and that often means more opportunities to trade.
I understand why I receive these emails. Inexperienced traders feel more comfortable trading leagues and teams in which they have some footballing knowledge.
But profitable football trading is all about stats and probabilities. Knowing all the teams, managers and players may be useful... but the numbers are far more important.
In this article, I'm going to show you where you can find goals all year round.
Winter Football v Summer Football
I've been trading for many years, so I have a good feel for each league.
For example, I know from experience that the Dutch Eerste Divisie has a very high number of average goals per game and that the Spanish Segunda does not.
If you're not an experienced trader though, we have Team Stats tools that show you exactly how 85 leagues around the world perform.
It's instant knowledge that helps you to make better trading decisions.
So how do winter and summer leagues match up?
Our Team Stats Database contains data for more than 300,000 football fixtures and it allows me to easily compare leagues against each other.
If look at the 49 European leagues covered by Team Stats that are played through the winter, there are 202,802 fixtures and an average of 2.64 goals per game.
However, the 11 European leagues that play during summer average 2.88 goals per game. These include leagues such as the Irish Premier and Norwegian Eliteserien.
That's a significant increase in goals. Only 9 of the 49 European winter leagues average more than 2.88 goals per game!
It's a similar story for overs and BTS.
While 49.3% of European winter league games go over 2.5 goals, that figure rises to 54.5% of European summer league games.
And both teams score in 51.3% of European winter league games, but 52.8% of European summer league games have at least one goal from both teams.
As a football trader, plenty of goals makes my life much easier. The end of the winter league season doesn't mean the end of profitable football trading!
Highest Scoring Summer Leagues
Of course, there are many more leagues that play through the summer than just those in Europe. Many North/South/Central American and Asian leagues also play in summer.
Here's a list of the top ten highest scoring summer leagues worldwide.
Average Goals Per Game | |
|---|---|
Singaporean S League | 3.25 |
Estonian Meistriliiga | 3.22 |
Icelandic Urvalsdeild | 3.10 |
Norwegian 1. Division | 3.08 |
Bolivian Primera Division | 3.05 |
Norwegian Eliteserien | 2.99 |
North American MLS | 2.85 |
Lithuanian A Lyga | 2.84 |
Latvian Virsliga | 2.80 |
Chinese Super League | 2.79 |
If you're wondering about the 'exciting' Brazilian leagues... it's a common misconception that they have lots of goals. In fact, Brazil's Serie A only averages 2.39 goals per game.
Argentinian football is even worse... just 2.27 goals per game!
Top 5 Summer Leagues for Trading
There are some terrific leagues worth trading throughout the summer and I'm going to run through my top five.
1. Swedish Allsvenskan
The Allsvenskan has had plenty of goals in recent years and sits just outside the top ten in my list above. Also, market liquidity on Betfair is excellent.
I've enjoyed many profitable trades in the Swedish Superettan as well, though a few games don't go in-play on Betfair.
Swedbank Stadion, Malmo, Sweden
2. Singaporean S League
Not many Europeans will have heard of 'Home United' or 'Tampines Rovers' but anyone who has traded football will have certainly come across the S League.
It's the top summer league for goals and very popular to trade. The only thing that holds the S League back is Betfair liquidity, though it's not as bad midweek.
Singapore National Stadium
3. North American Major League Soccer
'Soccer' is on the rise in the United States, helped by the arrival of Lionel Messi.
However, it still has a very long way to go before it comes close to challenging the popularity of NFL football, MLB baseball, NHL ice hockey and NBA basketball.
Even college sports are far more popular. For example, University of Michigan's stadium has 109,901 seats!
That being said, MLS is growing in popularity, especially among younger fans.
Betfair liquidity is good enough for in-play trading and there are plenty of goals scored, which perhaps has more to do with the standard of defending than anything else!
Chicago Fire, Major League Soccer
Be aware that MLS games never kick-off at the advertised time.
There's usually a 15-20 minute delay for the National Anthem, plus other bits and pieces. It can be annoying when you're up late and waiting for a trade!
4. Norwegian Eliteserien
This has been a strong trading league for many seasons, averaging a very healthy 2.99 goals per game over the past decade.
Norwegian 1. Division is even better for goals, though many games don't go in-play on Betfair so you have to be very careful.
No wonder Norwegian league football is played during summer!
5. Icelandic Urvalsdeild
There are plenty of goals in Iceland! Also, games often kick-off later in the evening which fits in nicely with those who need to put the kids to bed first.
The biggest challenge is that the regular season is quite short (only 22 games played) so waiting for teams to settle into form doesn't leave much time to trade.
During the summer of 2019, I visited Iceland and watched FH Hafnarfjordur v Grindavik in the Icelandic Cup. The home side were 5-0 up by half-time and won the game 7-1!
FH Hafnarfjordur v Grindavik
Only the national stadium in Reykjavik has floodlights as it's a FIFA requirement. None of the other stadiums need them as it doesn't get dark at night during summer!
Other Summer Leagues to Consider
The Finnish Veikkausliiga has been very inconsistent when it comes to goals.
2019 saw an average of 2.4 goals per game which rose to 2.8 in 2020, then dropped to 2.3 in 2021 before shooting back up to 2.9 in 2022.
However, when do you find goals, the prices are generally attractive.
The Irish Premier Division can produce good trades and liquidity is often ok on a Friday evening. I would trade more Irish First Division fixtures if they went in-play on Betfair.
Galway United FC, Irish Premier League
For the rest of the summer action, you're looking at Asia and the Americas.
Because of time zones, it's difficult to trade both. If you're an early bird, then the Asian leagues are ideal. For night owls, stick to North/South/Central America.
I have had great success trading the Japanese J League. Their experiment with the Apertura and Clausura system didn't work out, so it's back to a standard format again.
The Chinese Super League was on the rise after a lot of money was invested to bring superstar footballers to the country.
It quickly became one of the highest scoring football leagues, perhaps because the big money was spent on strikers rather than defenders!
I mentioned earlier that Brazilian football lacks goals, but that doesn't mean trading is off the table. Rather than goals trades, it's often best to concentrate on Match Odds.
As always, the key is finding the best risk/reward in each trading opportunity.
Why Wait?
If you're waiting for the English Premier League to start back up, then you're missing out on some terrific trading opportunities.
Our Team Stats software gives you all the information you need to trade any league in the world successfully, so make the most of the summer.
If your aim is to trade football for a living, then I can assure you that doing research on a laptop while sat outside in the sun beats working 9-5 in an office any day!
