How to Find Great Value in the Betfair Match Odds Market

Ajaccio v Orléans text with a French flag background

I have written a number of case studies which explain just how quick and easy it is to profit from football trading with Team Stats.

A couple of days ago I published this article which shows a simple £50 profit banked from the game between Nantes and Caen. Tonight, I took that £50 and found another strong trade to profit from.

Friday evenings during the winter generally have a French Ligue 1 fixture, a German Bundesliga fixture, one from the Dutch Eredivisie and something in the Spanish Primera. Fridays also feature busy league programmes in the French Ligue 2 and Dutch Jupiler.

Lots to choose from and plenty of temptation. If you want to make a long-term profit from football trading on Betfair, you simply must avoid weak trades and go after the very best opportunities only.

Note: The night before the game was played, I emailed the following information
to Goal Profits members who all have full access to Team Stats.


The Research

Scanning through the 'League Table Analysis' page (which all Goal Profits members have full access to) Ajaccio v Orléans stands out very clearly.

  • Ajaccio are 15th in Ligue 2, but 5th in the home table. They are 10th in the first half table and an even better 2nd in the home first half table. The home team are also 11th in the second half table. 10th in the form table, 5th in the home attack table and 11th in home defence. All of those are well above their overall position of 15th.
  • Orléans are 20th in Ligue 2 (bottom) and 20th in the away table too. They are 19th in the first half table, 17th in the second half table, 18th in the form table, 20th in away attack and 20th in away defence.

All is looking good so far, the only stat I don't like is...

  • Ajaccio are 20th at home to bottom third teams (W1 D0 L2). When I look at home v bottom half teams the record rises slightly to W2 D0 L3, but it's still a red flag.

However, I'm happy to discount it on this occasion due to the strength of the other stats and the fact that Orléans' overall away record is W0 D2 L7.

When I switch over to the Team Stats 'Goal Patterns' page I see that Ajaccio have taken the lead in 7/10 home games. They fell behind in their other 3 home games, but all of them then went 1-1. Orléans have only taken the lead in 3/9 away and each of those 3 went 1-1.

Therefore, if I were to back Ajaccio and the score went 0-1 with plenty of time left, I could lay Orléans and reasonably expect an equaliser. Good to know.

The 'Trading Stats' page shows me that Ajaccio have scored in all 10 of their home games this season, while Orléans have conceded in 7/9 away. While Ajaccio have also conceded in 7/10 at home, Orléans have only managed to score in 3/9 away (a total of 4 goals).

I can also see that Ajaccio have scored in 7/10 first halves at home, whereas Orléans have scored in 3/9 first halves away - and no second halves at all.

Ajaccio v Orleans Team Stats page

On the face of it, I'm looking at a home win. It could possibly be 1-1 at half-time if Orléans get a goal, but then I'd expect Ajaccio to go on and win in the second half (they've scored in 6/10 second halves). So perhaps a 2-0/2-1 final score.


The Trade

The Betfair Match Odds market offered a generous 2.32 for the home win. Considering the strength of the stats I'd uncovered, that represented fantastic value.

At that price, I only need a 50% set-and-forget strike rate for a profit overall and, if I keep doing that over and over, my bank will grow very nicely.

I also had the option of trading at any time that Ajaccio were in the lead in order to reduce - or completely remove - the liability.

I backed the home win at 2.32 for £50 and let the game go in-play.​

Betfair Match Odds market for the French Ligue 2 game Ajaccio v Orléans

Ajaccio were well on top by half-time, leading the corner count 4-1 and the shot count 9-1. It was exactly what I wanted to see, all that was missing was a goal.

After 70 minutes had been played, the in-play stats had risen further; corners 7-3 and shots 17-2. ​I was very confident of a goal, but layed the draw just in case the home side were caught out.

Betfair Match Odds market for the French Ligue 2 game Ajaccio v Orléans

It increased my liability, but covered a goal for either team and virtually doubled my profit on Ajaccio. This more aggressive approach doesn't suit all traders, but pays off in the right circumstances.


The Winner

Ajaccio got their winning goal on 74' and I secured a profit, just in case there happened to be an equaliser.

Betfair Match Odds market for the French Ligue 2 game Ajaccio v Orléans

A very simple trade, based on rock solid stats and a generous market price. And that's all there is to football trading; find strong opportunities at good prices, rinse and repeat, watch your bank grow.

Final score in the French Ligue 2 game Ajaccio v Orléans

Also...

While trading with Goal Profits members in the chat room, I posted an opportunity in the Belgian Jupiler game at Gent which landed a further 0.8pt profit (£80 at £100 stakes).

A very easy but profitable night of trading!

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