Why Do Betfair Prices Move in Football Markets?

Price movement is what makes football trading possible.

If you back at one price and lay at a lower price, or lay at one price and back at a higher price, you may be able to close the trade for a profit.

This is the idea behind trading football on Betfair, but the challenge is understanding why prices move, when they are likely to move and whether the potential reward is worth the risk.

Prices on betting exchange football markets move for several reasons:

Time Decay

If you've looked at in-play football markets before, you'll have seen very low 0-0 prices towards the end of football matches.

That's because there's not much time for either of the teams to score a goal so it's very likely to end 0-0.

The 0-0 price may have been very high at kick-off but it has steadily 'decayed'.

If there are no first half goals, 0-0 will often be a third of the price it was at kick-off. The price continues to tick down through the second half and hits 1.01 at the final whistle.

Goals

If a match kicks off with the home team priced at 2.00 to win and they take the lead, they are now more likely to win the game and the price drops accordingly.

The price of 2.00 converts to 50% probability of a home win. At 1-0, perhaps the probability of a home win rises to 75% which makes the price now 1.33.

That's fantastic price movement that football traders can certainly profit from.

Our free hedging calculator shows that if you back the home win for £100 at 2.00, you would then be able to lock in £50.38 profit (before commission) no matter the final result.

Red Cards

Many fans think that a team with 10 men will automatically go on to lose by a large number of goals, but football traders know differently.

A 10-man team may sit back to defend, especially if the score is level.

It's not easy to break down a well organised defence when a team has 11 men and it's not that much easier against 10 either.

The market, however, usually moves in favour of the team with 11 men and sometimes that isn't helpful.

In some matches, a red card can actually slow the game down and make goal-based trades much less attractive.

That is why many traders prefer to avoid matches with red cards altogether.

At Goal Profits, we generally see red cards as a reason to pause, reassess or exit rather than continue with the original plan. There are always more matches to trade, so there is no need to force it when the game has changed dramatically.

Team News

Not all football trading price movement happens in-play.

Prices often move around before kick-off when the team news is announced.

If a key player is missing from the line-up, the market can react quickly and the team may drift in the Match Odds market.

Goal markets can also shift depending on who is missing from the team, for example, the Over 2.5 Goals price might increase if a top striker is on the bench.

The opposite might happen if a team has rested several defenders, with goal prices shortening if the game is looking more open.

In short, any new information about a team can move the market.

Match Momentum and Game State

When it comes to football trading, what's happening in the game matters just as much as the scoreline.

A match might still be 0-0, but one team could be dominating possession and creating chances. This is where in-play stats come in.

Stats like shots, shots on target, corners and dangerous attacks can all help you judge whether a match is lively or flat. However, stats shouldn’t be followed blindly. Ten shots from a long range are very different to three clear chances inside the box.

Game state matters too.

A team chasing an equaliser will usually take more risks, whereas a team protecting a narrow lead may sit deeper. Managers might bring on an extra striker, change the formation, or try to slow the game down.

Good football traders are always asking:

"What does each team need from this match right now?"

The answer before kick-off can be very different to the answer after 70 minutes.

This is why in-play trading can be so powerful. When your pre-match research and what you're seeing in-play are pointing in the same direction, you've got a much stronger reason to get involved.