Over-Trading Football is a Mistake: 17pts Profit is Proof

Balancing act between trading too much and too little.

It's been almost two years since I decided to learn how to trade sports and use it as a second income.

During this time I have bought the most diverse courses, read various books and tried the weirdest strategies. I have invested time and money.

Maybe because - somehow - it also became a hobby and a source of amusement, I never bothered to do the maths on how much time I needed to recover all the investment. After all, any college course would cost something similar.

My initial goal was to get a second source of income and at some point I needed to reverse what was currently a "second source of spending". I needed to be pragmatic and analyse what was happening.

My first step was to get enough consistent income to cover my expenses related to football trading. The most significant was the cost of my various subscriptions paid monthly which together add up to about $100.00 per month. This works out at approximately US $3.30 per day.

I thought, if my trading bank is $1,000 and I get 1% daily profit, then I would have $10.00 - $3.30 = $6.70 or 200% profit on the amount "invested". That would be very good, if possible.

But is it really possible to make an average of 1% per day from the bank?

Well, I decided to listen to experience. I met Kevin through Goal Profits and he certainly is what you might call a "seasoned trader." Some of his mottos are "discipline", "plan", "less is more" and other pearls of wisdom.

So, to see if his methods really work I did two tests over two different months.

Test #1

In the first test, I used Kevin's scheme of rotation between systems, trying in every way to control my tendency to over-trade.

  • The result of this test was 10pts profit over the month.
Test #2

The second test was conducted during the month of October 2014 and split into two parts.

  1. Firstly, I created a separate bank and made some very restrictive filters using criteria of "value" taught by Kevin. I used a table of minimum odds for league and team rating and others that I self-imposed. This resulted in a small number of trades per day and, very often, none at all.
  2. Secondly, I used the same systems that had been used during the first test, but I relaxed in every way - Perhaps to vent to my urge to gamble. I over-traded, didn't respect the rotation system, increased the number of systems, etc. This matched many of my previous bad practices.

At the end of the month I came to some conclusions and I believe that anyone who has read this far will realise the lessons learned:

With discipline:
  • Total bets: 50
  • Total systems used: 9
  • Number of winning systems: 5
  • Number of scratch systems: 0
  • Total profit: 17pts
Over-trading:
  • Total bets: 400
  • Total systems used: 28
  • Number of winning systems: 12
  • Number of scratch systems: 2
  • Total loss: 41pts
Conclusion

So two months running, a disciplined approach ended with 10pts and 17pts profit. This is exactly in the area identified by Kevin as being a good target of 10pts profit over a month.

Was this pure coincidence? Or is there some obscure law that means this is the right target?

Goal Profits member: Odone

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2 Comments

  1. I also use a rotation system which I have adopted from reading posts from Kevin, Tim and the other mentors. So I use £30 a point. So according to this if I make £300 in the first part of the month which is possible with a few good 1001 should I stop and wait until the following month?

    1. Hi Paul, Odone’s test was the proof he needed that discipline and very strict match selection criteria make a huge difference. I know from experience that it works, and almost every Goal Profits member I have heard from who has implemented very strict selection criteria has found that trading less produces more profit. I had never looked at the comparison before in terms of actual figures, so it was really interesting to see the proof in numbers.

      If your selection criteria is strict and you continue to make profit through the month then I don’t see any reason to stop. However, if you find that your profit graph has major ups and downs then you may need to tighten things up, weed out the weaker trades and smooth out that line.

      As always with trading, it comes down to personal choice and finding what works for you.

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