One of the toughest decisions in football trading is whether to secure scratch and wait for another goal or take the profit.
This is something that comes up quite often with first-half goal strategies, such as the Goal Profits FH15 strategy, where an early goal can leave you with several options.
A recent FH15 trade provided a good example.
I entered the Over 1.5 First Half Goals market at odds of 6.80 and a goal arrived shortly afterwards.
At that point, I had a choice.
I could trade out and secure a decent profit regardless of whether another goal was scored, or I could scratch the current score and leave a much bigger profit on a second first-half goal.
So which is the better option?
A real FH15 trading example
On this particular trade, after the first goal I could secure approximately:
- £25 profit if there were no more first-half goals
- £30 profit if another goal was scored
Alternatively, I could trade out at scratch on the current score and leave around:
- £0 if there were no more goals
- £58 profit if another goal was scored
The second option offered the chance of a much bigger profit if another goal arrived.
As it happened, another goal did arrive.
So in this case, I would have made more by scratching the current score and leaving the bigger profit on a second goal.
But that doesn't automatically mean it would have been the better decision.
Don't let hindsight fool you
One of the easiest mistakes to make when reviewing a football trade is to judge the decision by what happened afterwards.
Once another goal has gone in, it's very easy to think:
"I should have left that running."
But at the time, I had no way of knowing whether another goal would come.
The actual choice was between securing around £25 profit or giving that up for the chance to make around £58 instead.
That is why I think it is important to judge the decision based on the information available at the time, rather than the final result.
The same decision can look brilliant in one match and terrible in another, even if the reasoning behind it was exactly the same.
What does the maths say?
We can also look at the decision in terms of expected value.
With the more conservative exit, the outcomes were roughly:
No second goal: +£25
Second goal: +£30
With the scratch option:
No second goal: £0
Second goal: +£58
To compare the two, we need to work out how often another goal would need to arrive for both options to be worth the same on average.
With the first option, £25 is already secured. If another goal arrives, that increases to £30.
With the second option, there is no guaranteed profit, but another goal produces £58.
If we call the chance of another goal p, the calculation looks like this:
Secure profit: £25 + (£5 × p)
Scratch: £58 × p
We then set the two figures equal:
£25 + £5p = £58p
Which gives:
£25 = £53p
Dividing £25 by £53 gives:
p = 0.472, or 47.2%
So, with these particular figures, another first-half goal would need to arrive around 47% of the time from that point onwards for scratching to have the better expected value.
If the true chance of another goal was lower than 47%, taking the £25 would be the better option mathematically. If it was higher than 47%, scratching and leaving the bigger profit on the second goal would come out ahead.
An easier way to think about it is that I was giving up £25 of guaranteed profit for the chance to make an extra £28.
That doesn't tell us whether another goal will actually arrive, but it does show how likely that second goal needs to be before giving up the profit already available starts to make sense.
What if the first goal comes later?
The amount of profit available after the first goal can make a big difference.
In the example above, I was able to secure around half a point.
But if the first goal arrives later, less profit may be available to take. For example, let's say that only 0.25 points could be locked in.
Giving up 0.25 points for the chance of a much bigger profit may be easier to justify than giving up 0.5 points.
The timing of the goal matters too.
An earlier goal leaves more time for another to arrive, while a goal closer to half-time gives you a much smaller window.
So the decision isn't just about whether to take the profit or scratch. It can depend on:
- how much profit can already be secured
- how much extra profit is available if another goal arrives
- how much time is left in the half
- how the in-play stats are looking
Which is the better option?
There isn't one exit method that will always be best.
If a decent profit can already be secured, taking it may make more sense than giving that up for the chance of a bigger return.
If only a small amount can be locked in, scratching and leaving more profit on another goal may be more attractive.
The important thing is to weigh up the risk and reward at the time, rather than judging the decision by what happens afterwards.
Your own trading style matters too.
If longer losing or scratch runs are something you find difficult to deal with, taking a profit more often may suit you better.
If you're comfortable with more variance in return for the chance of bigger wins, scratching and leaving more on another goal may be the better fit.