A first half goals strategy is based on trading football matches where you expect one or more goals before half-time.
There is a good reason why some traders like to focus on the first half. Our data covers more than 300,000 football matches played over 10+ years, and in 68.9% of them, there was at least one first-half goal.
In other words, fewer than a third of matches reached half-time at 0-0.
Of course, that doesn't mean you can pick any match and expect a goal. The important part is finding the right games and entering at the right price.
First half traders usually use markets such as Over 1.5 First Half Goals, where a goal can create an opportunity to trade out for a profit. This is one of several approaches commonly used in football trading.
How does first half goals trading work?
First half goals trading works by taking advantage of how the odds move on a betting exchange during the first half.
Using the Over 1.5 First Half Goals market as an example, the longer the score stays 0-0, the higher the price will usually rise because there is less time left for two goals to be scored.
This gives traders the option of waiting for a better price rather than entering before kick-off or early in the match.
If a goal is scored, the odds will quickly shorten. Depending on when the goal arrives and the price you entered at, this may give you the opportunity to trade out for a profit, or secure scratch on the current score and leave a bigger profit on another goal.
The important thing is that you don't necessarily need two first-half goals to make money from an Over 1.5 trade. One goal can be enough to get out with a profit.
A first half goals trading example
Let's say a match is still 0-0 after 15 minutes and you back Over 1.5 First Half Goals at odds of 5.00.
A goal is scored soon afterwards and the price drops sharply because there is now only one more goal needed.
This leaves you with a few options.
You could trade out and lock in a profit straight away, secure scratch and leave some profit on another goal, or stay in the trade and wait to see what happens.
There is no single exit that will always be best. The amount of profit available will depend on what price you entered at, when the goal was scored and how much time remains in the half.
I've looked at the different ways to manage the trade after a goal in more detail in my football trading exit strategy guide.
How to find first half trades at Goal Profits
Finding suitable matches is one of the most important parts of any first half goals strategy.
At Goal Profits, members don't need to go through every fixture manually. Today's Qualifiers uses our Team Stats data to shortlist matches that meet the criteria for our different trading strategies.
That gives you a much smaller list of games to work from each day.
From there, you can take a closer look at the stats for each match and follow the action in-play with the Live Stats Module before deciding whether to enter.
First half trading strategies
There are several different ways to approach first half goal trading.
At Goal Profits, two of the main strategies are FH15 and FHG Single.
FH15 uses the Over 1.5 First Half Goals market.
Rather than entering from kick-off, the idea is to wait for the price to rise before getting involved. If a goal arrives after entry, there is often an opportunity to trade out.
FHG Single uses the Over 0.5 First Half Goals market.
Technically, it works a little differently from a trade because the market is settled as soon as a first-half goal is scored. We still include it alongside our first-half strategies because it uses the same type of match selection and in-play analysis.
The two strategies therefore have different risk and reward profiles, even though both are based around finding matches with a good chance of producing a first-half goal.
Members are given qualifiers for each strategy, so the main job is deciding which matches you want to follow and making sure they still look suitable when the time comes to enter.
Why wait before entering?
One of the biggest advantages of waiting is that the odds improve as the clock runs down.
If you backed Over 1.5 First Half Goals before kick-off, the price would usually be much lower than it is after 10, 15 or 20 minutes at 0-0.
Waiting gives you a better potential return, but there is an obvious trade-off. The longer you wait, the less time there is for the goals to arrive.
That is why entry timing matters. You are trying to find a point where the price has become attractive without leaving yourself too little time for the trade to work.
It is also why there is no reason to enter just because a match appeared on a shortlist. If the in-play stats aren't strong or the game isn't playing out as expected, sometimes the best trade is no trade at all.
What happens if there is no goal?
Not every trade will work.
If the match stays 0-0, the odds on Over 1.5 First Half Goals will continue to rise and the position will move against you.
This is why staking and good bank management are so important.
You should know how much you are prepared to lose before entering the trade, rather than increasing your stake or trying to chase the loss if the goal doesn't arrive.
Losing runs are unavoidable with any football trading strategy, so the aim isn't to win every trade. It is to keep individual losses manageable and make sure one bad match doesn't do unnecessary damage to your bank.
Is first half goals trading right for you?
First half goals trading won't suit everyone, but there are a few reasons why it appeals to a lot of traders.
The trades are relatively short and you're generally finished by half-time, so you don't need to sit through an entire 90 minute match.
It can also suit traders who prefer goal markets and like having the option to trade out after a goal.
On the other hand, the shorter time window means things can move quickly. You need to be comfortable with losing trades, patient enough to wait for the right entry and disciplined enough to leave a match alone when it doesn't look right.
For me, that is part of the appeal. You can research the match beforehand, watch how it develops and then make a decision rather than feeling that you have to get involved from kick-off.