Kevin’s Euro 2016 Preview

Euro 2016

Euro 2016 will be with us very shortly and, during the month of the tournament, I will be trading many of the games in the chat room, guiding members as I go.

I have also identified a number of ante-post bets for the games which hopefully you should be able to trade at some point after the start of the tournament.

What happened during Euro 2012?

First of all, just a quick look back at Euro 2012 which saw Spain beat Italy 4-0 in the final.

In 2012 there were only 4 groups, in 2016 there are six groups, taking the number of teams up to 24 instead of the usual 16.

This may well alter how teams decide to play because there will be 16 of the 24 going through to the knockout stages of the tournament.

In 2012 there were a total of 31 games and 76 goals, at an average of 2.4 goals per game. Fairly healthy for an international tournament.

In the group stages 11 out of 24 games went Over 2.5 goals (46%) and 14 out of 24 games went Both Teams to Score (58%). That certainly looks like BTS has the edge there.

The first round of group games produced 2.5 goals per game. The second round gave 3.0 goals per game, whilst the final round of group games gave just 2.0 goals per game. Looking at that it is the second round of games that should produce more goals.

Of the 24 group games 84% of them finished 1-0/1-1/2-1/2-0, so they are the scores to be concentrating on during the group stages.

Certainly no Rambo systems there, but a conservative Easy Rider might bag a winner or two.

The Quarter Finals in 2012 only gave up 2.2 goals per game, and the Semi-Finals only had 3 goals in the 2 games. That points to very cagey affairs later in the tournament.

So let’s start looking at what might happen in 2016.

Euro 2016 groups

These are the 6 groups as drawn out, with world rankings shown in brackets.

Group A

France (21)

Romania (19)

Albania (45)

Switzerland (14)

Group B

England (10)

Russia (27)

Wales (24)

Slovakia (32)

Group C

Germany (5)

Ukraine (22)

Poland (27)

Northern Ireland (26)

Group D

Spain (6)

Czech Republic (29)

Turkey (13)

Croatia (23)

Group E

Belgium (2)

Italy (15)

Republic of Ireland (31)

Sweden (36)

Group F

Portugal (8)

Iceland (35)

Austria (11)

Hungary (18)

Based purely on rankings, the strongest group is D and the weakest is A.

The Euros get underway on June 10th when the hosts, France, take on Romania.

The Final is on July 10th.

Group stages

The top two in each group go through to the knockout stages, as do the 4 best 3rd placed teams.

This means that only 8 teams are eliminated in the group stages.

Let’s try and pick out a few Ante-Post bets, which you will be able to trade later if things are going your way.

Group A – this looks to be a group set up for France to qualify as winners, with Romania and Switzerland fighting it out for second spot. The key fixture then is Romania v Switzerland on 15 June in Paris, in the second round of group games. Romania are in good form, including a draw to Spain, whilst the Swiss are not, a defeat to Republic of Ireland not boding well for their Euro 2016 fortunes.

  1. France
  2. Romania
  3. Switzerland
  4. Albania

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast France/Romania 4.50

Group B – this could be a tough group to get out of. England had a great qualifying campaign and have to fancy their chances. Are Wales a one man team? Russia rarely do well at International tournaments, and Slovakia first time qualifiers as an independent nation. You do have to worry about the Slovaks strength in depth. England in a good place at moment and should win the group, leaving Wales and Russia to scrap for second. They play each other in the final group games at Toulouse on 20 June.

  1. England
  2. Wales
  3. Russia
  4. Slovakia

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast England/Wales 6.50

Group C – world champions Germany in this one, along with Ukraine, Poland and Northern Ireland. This will be super tough for the Irish lads. Germany to win the group, with NI bottom, leaving Poland and Ukraine fighting for second. They play each other in the final round of group games.

  1. Germany
  2. Poland
  3. Ukraine
  4. Northern Ireland

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast Germany/Poland 3.25

Euro 2016 bet winner

Group D – European champions Spain may be a waning force and could be in a fight to make it through in this tough group. Croatia and Turkey both with strong squads, with the midfield of Croatia very potent. Czech Republic no pushovers either. This is probably the toughest group and a nightmare to predict.

  1. Croatia
  2. Turkey
  3. Spain
  4. Czech Republic

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast Croatia/Turkey 26.00

Group E – this group has Belgium, Italy, Republic of Ireland and Sweden. The latter depending far too much on Ibrahimovic, the Republic more intent on drawing rather than looking to win for me, leaving Belgium and Italy to fight out the top two spots. They play each other in the first round of group games and will probably take a draw there.

  1. Belgium
  2. Italy
  3. Sweden
  4. Republic of Ireland

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast Belgium/Italy 5.00

Group F – the final group has Portugal as favourites, but Iceland did really well in qualifying and could give them a run for their money in their opening game.. Both Austria, who had a brilliant qualifying campaign, and Hungary will more than make up the numbers. Another group where it is difficult to pick out any order with confidence.

  1. Portugal
  2. Austria
  3. Iceland
  4. Hungary

Suggested bet:

Straight forecast Portugal/Austria 4.00

Top goalscorer
Euro 2016 bet winner

I will have a look at a few Top Goalscorer bets now.

One stand out bet has to be Gareth Bale as top goalscorer for Wales at 2.38

And another would be Harry Kane top goalscorer for England at 3.50

As for the top goalscorer for the tournament, you have to look for teams that will go a long way, probably right to the final.

Euro 2016 bet winner

France would fit that bill, so I will go with Antoine Griezmann at 13.0

As a saver, I will have a try on someone who has been doing it the Premier League - Harry Kane at 19.0

Euro 2016 winner

For the winner of the Tournament, I am dismissing Spain who have won the last two Euros. They were not quite good enough during World Cup 2014 and probably have gone downhill since then.

France as the hosts must have a great chance and I am expecting them to make it to the semis at least. I am not sure that their manager has the requisite experience at this level, though they do have a strong squad.

You can never discount Germany and, as World Champions, will come into this with great expectations. They have lost key players though and that will not help.

Italy are not at their strongest right now and Portugal are perennial under achievers. Croatia may be a surprise package this time round.

Maybe it is time for a change at the top and I am going with two options for a good chance to win this thing.

Winner of Euro 2016:

England at 10.0

Belgium at 13.0

Trading Euro 2016

Throughout the tournament I will be playing many of the games as trading options. Of course, it will depend on the particular game as to what type of trade I will be looking at.

I will post my strategies for each game that I intend to play in the Members Area well in advance, then will play the games in the chat room live and in-play.

I am really looking forward to the tournament this time round and do hope that teams turn up to play attractive football which will get us on the edge of our seats.

Kevin's summary...

Overall, Euro 2016 provided a very good return, despite the lack of goals.

There were only 2.08 goals per game on average... terrible!

The overall ROI including ante-post bets and in-play trades was 18.3%.

Trade the 2016/17 season with me

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