Profit Expectations | Get in the Real World, Pip

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In the Charles Dickens novel we all know that Pip always had “Great Expectations”, but how long would he survive in the football trading world with such expectations? We will explore the myths and the truths about this world in which we operate, to see if Pip could survive and flourish, or if his hopes would perish under the weight of his expectations.

The World of Trading

Most people enter the world of football trading either for a bit of fun/relaxation, or to hopefully make a little bit of profit.

If you do this on a weekly/monthly ad hoc basis for just a few quid here and there, not really worrying about whether you win or lose, that is absolutely fine.

You know that the worst that could happen is you lose a couple of £/€ a week and as long as you don’t get drawn in any further then you will come to no harm.

Here we are now in the 21st century, most of us have access to the internet and when we surf the net we look for things that we are interested in.

The traders/bettors/gamblers among us will eventually land on trading/betting/tipster sites.

Matt black Lamborghini parked in the driveway of a mansion house.

They will look at the sales page and maybe see a sports car parked in the drive of a mansion house.

This does exactly what it is meant to do.

It raises your expectations to such a level that you want to join that tipster's site immediately.

You want a sports car so badly and the mansion house would be very nice too.

I bet it’s got a swimming pool as well, but that will be round the back.

Yes, the tipster does have a results page, but you have already been dazzled by the sales page and you can’t see past that sports car.

So now you are all of a flutter wanting to get started betting on the tips you get.

Actually it starts ok and you make a little money in the first week.

At last you have found the Holy Grail (why didn’t I find it earlier?!).

You feel infallible and so the following week you put larger stakes on.

"That way I will make more money quicker, can’t wait!"

"Oops, how did that happen? He has had a loser. Oh well, I am sure it will be only the one."

"No it’s not... he has had three losers on the trot in one day and I have been putting big money on them."

"What I made last week has disappeared in just one day."

One bad day may not put a member off a site, but one bad week may.

A football trader is stressed because he didn't use a lay the draw strategy.

A bad month almost certainly would.

Is that fair though?

Is the tipster giving out rubbish tips or is the member totally unrealistic with his/her expectations, a little like Pip?

Profit expectations

When you first saw that site what were your expectations?

Yes you saw the house and the car and no doubt your expectations soared, but did you actually put a figure on them, or did you just think 'this time next week I will be a millionaire'?

Yes, it is nice to have expectations, but it is necessary to keep those expectations to a realistic level.

Pip has got great expectations, but we as traders should have more realistic expectations that suit our trading bank and our stakes.

If you start with a trading bank of £1,000, don’t expect it to be £5,000 by the end of the first month.

That has never been done in the history of the world and never will be.

An experienced trader will often expect to make a 10% increase on their bank per month.

A competent trader will have good days making 3/4/5% but these days will be rare and cannot be sustained over a long period as the risks are simply too high.

What the good days do, though, is make up for the days when there's not a profit to be had.

For anyone just starting out, if you can get through your first six months with any sort of a profit, you have done well and will make profit in the future.

Keep profit expectations realistic

So breaking it down into one day at a time, if you are aiming for 10% per month you would in fact be looking for just 0.3% per day.

If you had a bank of £1,000 that would be a profit of just £3 on the first day.

You need to think about that.

If you think that a £3 profit from a bank of £1,000 is not much on day one, your expectations are far too high.

The chances are that you will lose your bank at some point in the coming months because you will start taking too many risks by:

Three pound coins
  • Staking too high
  • Trading without value on your side
  • Getting involved with weak trades.

All of these will catch you out at some point.

If you accept that 0.3% per day is a good return you will be rewarded.

If you had a bank of £1,000 and you go with a target of 0.3% per day, compounding as you go, at the end of the year your bank will have trebled to £3,000.

An outstanding achievement!

You need to use your bank as an investment tool.

The increases will be small to start with but as your bank grows, so does the possibility of it gaining speed due to the compounding effect.

Greed is the trigger that gets your expectation levels to sky rocket and in the end it is greed that will kill your bank.

You will over expose it with staking ratios that are far too high for the capital you have available.

No, unfortunately our Pip would not have survived in the trading world.

His expectations were too high, so the house would be built on very unstable footings and come crashing down onto that sports car.

Modify your expectations and the pressures on you will reduce.

Your bank will develop at a sustainable level which may not seem great to start with, but at just 0.3% per day that £1,000 would be £250,000 in five years time.

You'd be happy with that, right?

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  1. Hello…
    Interesting article, but i ave aquestion
    I have a bank of 1000€. If I win 100€ per month (3€ per day…0,3%) at the end of the year I get aprox. 1.200€ that is not the trebled of 1000€
    Thank You

    1. Hi Paco

      What you need to do is reset your bank to 100pts at the end of each month so that it compounds. If not, then it won’t grow nearly as quickly.

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