How to Identify When Goals are Down and Trade Profitably

A football which has not quite crossed the goal line.

Trading-wise, the summer of 2015 was tough to figure out.

The incredibly tiresome international break decimated league fixtures for much longer than everyone feared and then, of course, the summer leagues needed time to settle again.

The much bigger story, however, was the downturn in goals.

If you have any interest in betting or trading football you need to be aware of what happened and how we managed a difficult situation, so keep reading.

What did Team Statistics Trends tell us?

Firstly, there are 20 summer leagues covered by the Team Statistics software. As well as current season stats for every upcoming fixture, the software also look at long-term trends so that we can see exactly what's going on (and adjust accordingly).

Over the past decade (before 2015) more than 50% of matches played during the summer had gone over 2.5 goals except for 2014 which returned 49%. However, 2015 at the time this article was written was running at just 45.8%. That was a massive 11% drop in goals against the ten year average. Ouch!

Take the Swedish Superettan, for example. I had had great success trading there in the past and yet in 2015 I didn't touch it once. Why? Team Statistics Trends was showing almost 18% fewer goals against the ten year average and 19% against the previous season.

Before I had access to these long-term trend numbers I may well have gone in and lost money. What a life saver!

Looking at all 20 leagues again, half-time 0-0 scorelines were up by almost 5% against the ten year average, as were full-time 0-0 results. Both teams to score were down too. For traders and bettors looking for goals, it was sorry state.

And lay the draw traders didn't escape the bad news either; full-time draws were up by a huge 9.2% against the ten year average.

How did I adjust my trading to cope?

Very simply, I concentrated on strategies which did not need lots of goals.

Rather than over 2.5 goals bets which, obviously, need three or more goals, I looked at home/away win which only need one goal to produce a winner. In more recent times I have further improved returns by trading rather than straight betting.

During June and July I traded just 18 'Batman & Robin' (correct score) matches. This was partly due to the surprising lack of fixtures, but also because there simply were not enough goals about. From those 18 trades I banked a profit of 7.9pts at 13.7% ROI which was an outstanding number and I was delighted that my disciplined approach paid huge dividends.

From 'Daily Best Bets' over at Value Football Betting (now closed to new members and replaced by Trade Your Bets) I picked out 12 straight bets. Those returned a profit of 8.3pts at a staggering 69% ROI. The lack of goals certainly affected my bet selection there, with 9/12 coming in the match odds market and only 3 in goals markets.

Taking Daily Best Bets as a whole during that time, the match odds markets had returned 15pts profit while the goals markets made a loss of approximately 8pts. That tells a story in itself!

Team Stats Trends

I could put my success during the summer of 2015 down to one thing; Team Statistics Trends in the Goal Profits Members Area. I identified early on that there was an issue with goals, adjusted my trading/betting and the profits continued to flow.

Looking at my own trading and betting results again, I was delighted at how I managed to achieve such returns amidst the goal drought. Team Statistics played such a major role in that.

Team Statistics Trends shows which leagues are performing best in terms of correct score 'target score' hits and that helps me to narrow down the number of fixtures I research. I am then able to focus much more on a smaller number of potential trades, then pick out those which have the very best chance of making a profit.

And it works! During the lean spell I emailed 10 correct score trades out to members; 6 ended bang on a target score and another 2 were just a goal out. A total of 11.4pts profit and 36% ROI.

Thanks, Team Stats!

How did the summer of 2015 end up?

Terrible for most bettors and traders:

  • 0-0 results ended at 8.2% of all summer leagues fixtures which was the highest number of any season over the past decade. Thankfully, 2016 bounced back to 7.3%.
  • Over 2.5 goals was down at 48.1%, also the worst on record. Again, 2016 has seen the number get back up to 50.0% which is still a little low, but better than both 2014 and 2015.
  • And to round of 2015's summer of woe, Both Teams to Score (BTS) results ended at 51.5%. This was the joint worst return along with 2014. Yet again, 2015 has seen a bounce up to 52.1%.

I posted two possible scenarios during summer 2015:

  1. We end up with by far the worst summer on record for goals
  2. There's a big correction between now and the end of summer

Of course, the first one came to be true and my disciplined approach of only trading the very best matches for certain strategies continued to generate a return.

Note: All Goal Profits members have full access to Team Stats Trends.

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